UFC on Fox 2 Preview: The Main Card

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Middleweights
Chael Sonnen (26-11-1, 5-4 UFC) vs. Michael Bisping (22-3, 12-3 UFC)

The Matchup: An injury to Mark Munoz left Sonnen without an opponent, so now two of the most polarizing figures in mixed martial arts will lock horns, with the winner earning a shot at Anderson Silva’s middleweight gold. Sonnen made a triumphant return to the Octagon after more than a year away at UFC 136, overwhelming Brian Stann with his takedowns and ground-and-pound en route to a second-round submission victory. The Team Quest product will find it more difficult to keep Bisping grounded, because the Englishman has excellent takedown defense and can clear his hips and use the cage to get up when taken down.

However, Jason Miller was able to score a trip takedown and work some moderate ground-and-pound in the first round of his encounter with Bisping before gassing in rounds two and three at “The Ultimate Fighter 14” Finale. Sonnen is on another level entirely and will not be discouraged if “The Count” thwarts his wrestling in the early going. Sonnen has outstanding timing when it comes to transitioning from striking to takedowns, and his bout with Silva at UFC 117 demonstrated that he can hold his own while standing with the best in the world. As good as a defensive strategist as he is, Bisping must be prepared to weather a relentless approach from Sonnen, who is excellent at stringing together multiple takedown attempts in a single sequence.

Once on top, Sonnen is content to work inside of his opponent’s guard, where he is more than capable of posturing up and doing damage with punches and elbows. The former University of Oregon wrestler’s tremendous stamina allows him to maintain a consistent work rate on the mat and avoid referee restarts. Against a submission specialist, Sonnen’s comfort working in guard can be a detriment, but Bisping has not induced a tapout since his UFC career began.

“The Count” will have to be on his bicycle against Sonnen, who will not be threatened by Bisping’s volume punching style as he looks to close distance. Sonnen is especially clever when it comes to luring foes into his range and planting them on the canvas.

Bisping cannot allow himself to be frozen by the threat of a takedown, because it is his boxing that will have to win the fight for him. The owner of excellent footwork and an accurate right hand, the Brit will need to use those assets judiciously, moving in and out of danger while connecting with one-two combinations.

The Pick: Bisping’s conditioning is excellent and he is difficult to finish, but a five-round fight might have been better suited to his skill set here, as he could have hoped that Sonnen would fatigue and make a mistake in the championship frames. In a three-round fight, it is a near guarantee that Sonnen will be able to dictate the location of the fight, as he did against the likes of Yushin Okami and Nate Marquardt. A crafty submission game is the antidote to Sonnen’s top control, but Bisping has yet to display anything like that in the Octagon. Look for a hard-fought first round, with Sonnen gradually asserting himself in the second and third to come away with a late stoppage or a decision.

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