Preview: UFC Fight Night ‘Machida vs. Dollaway’

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Antonio Carlos Jr. (4-0, 1-0 UFC) vs. Patrick Cummins (6-1, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Carlos Jr., the heavyweight winner of “The Ultimate Fighter: Brazil 3,” drops to 205 pounds and returns to the cage for the first time since defeating Vitor Miranda to win the reality show in May. His opponent will be the fast-rising Cummins, who has rattled off two straight victories over low-level competition since dropping his UFC debut to top contender Daniel Cormier on short notice.

The Brazilian is a quick, athletic and rapidly improving fighter. A raw grappler at the beginning of his time on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Carlos Jr. has since flashed much-improved striking skills, throwing slick, forward-moving punch-kick combinations that pack real power. He uses those combinations to push his opponent toward the fence and force him to cover up, which makes his takedowns much more effective. Those takedowns consist mostly of trips in the clinch and quick shots, and while they are not top-shelf in quality, they are mostly sufficient. From top position, Carlos Jr. is a monster. He maintains a heavy base, passes well, throws brutal ground strikes and owns an array of submissions, namely a slick arm-triangle.

Cummins is a near world-class wrestler with the kind of athleticism, physicality and brutal takedowns one would expect from a Penn State University All-American who came within a whisker of earning a berth on the United States team for the world championships in 2010. Unsurprisingly, Cummins’ MMA game relies on that deep skill set and builds on it through effective phase-shifting. He likes the single-leg, for example, but if he cannot finish, he immediately lets go and unloads with a punching combination while his opponent’s hands are down. Cummins rarely changes levels without at least a feint -- if not a punch or two -- up top to draw his opponent’s hands out of position. When he gains top position, he has excellent posture and a heavy base, and his ground strikes pack real concussive force. At range, Cummins has a surprisingly developed game, with nice kicks and decent counters, but like most inexperienced strikers, he struggles defensively and has a limited set of tools.

THE PICK: The major unknown factor here is the rate of improvement for Carlos Jr. He will undoubtedly stuff some of Cummins’ takedowns, but spending any amount of time with the American in top position is a surefire recipe for a beating. If he could find top position or keep the fight at striking distance for long stretches, Carlos Jr. would have an excellent shot at winning, but that seems less likely than Cummins working his takedown and dirty boxing games for most of the fight. Cummins by decision is the pick.

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