Preview: UFC 191 ‘Johnson vs. Dodson 2’

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Light Heavyweights

Jan Blachowicz (18-4, 1-1 UFC) vs Corey Anderson (5-1, 2-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: From a purely technical perspective, Blachowicz is one of the best light heavyweight strikers on the planet. The Polish export operates in the mode of a classical British boxer. His jab is his bread and butter, and he will happily spend long portions of a fight circling his opponent and prodding away with that snapping left hand, mixing in sneaky left hooks to keep the other man’s hands at home.

Pace and aggression proved to be a problem for Blachowicz against Jimi Manuwa, however, and that has been a hole in his game for some time. Opponents who press Blachowicz, feinting and prodding between all-out bursts of offense, tend to reduce his output. He remains a sharpshooter under such circumstances but tends to think too much and leave too much time between shots for his attacker to just keep on attacking.

What Anderson lacks in experience and technique he makes up for in willingness. He is a relatively strong combination puncher, with considerable pop in both hands. At just 25 years old, Anderson’s real problem is the fact that he fights in a weight class with very little gradation. The light heavyweight division contains a paltry 34 fighters, fewer than any division but the newest, women’s strawweight. That means that just under a third of the fighters in the division are ranked in the top 10; and while many of those top fighters have turned in lackluster results of late, that still does not leave much room for a young, inexperienced fighter to develop and find his style.

Anderson has proven more than capable against a comparable level of competition: He handled both Justin Jones and Matt Van Buren without much trouble. However, a step up against the inconsistent but always dangerous Gian Villante proved far too much for Anderson to handle, and now he has drawn Blachowicz, who is almost certainly a better fighter than Villante.

THE ODDS: Blachowicz (-150), Anderson (+130)

THE PICK: There are openings for Anderson here, don’t get me wrong. Blachowicz leaves holes for more active fighters, and Anderson has never been reluctant to throw. He us also teak-tough: He absorbed an unbelievable 30 vicious leg kicks from Villante and still came on strong in the third round. The fact that we know how many kicks Anderson can take so soon into his career is troubling, however, and against a fighter of Blachowicz’s caliber, with years of experience against a litany of battle-tested opponents, Anderson will have needed a remarkable amount of improvement in a short amount of time to win. Blachowicz by decision is the pick.

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