UFC 128 Preview: The Main Card

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Heavyweights
Mirko “Cro Cop” Filipovic vs. Brendan Schaub

The Matchup: It was once every fighter’s nightmare in Japan under the Pride Fighting Championships banner. Filipovic’s left high kick was the deadliest weapon in the game in his heyday and perhaps in the history of the sport. Since moving to the UFC, it has become obvious he does not fight with the same fire and work rate, instead saving his potent explosions in very specific moments. In between those, he gets hit and outworked by opponents. He has gone 4-4 in the UFC, with his peak, circa 2005, clearly behind him and not coming back.

Schaub, a rising heavyweight talent, has put together some notable wins. At 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds, “The Ultimate Fighter” Season 10 finalist took a big jump forward in his decision win over former title contender Gabriel Gonzaga in his last bout at UFC 121. Schaub showed a mix of confidence and good temperament in adjusting to the flow of the fight and went the distance in impressive fashion.

Filipovic is in decline, and Schaub is on the ascent. It is as simple as that. Cro Cop’s best chance is to make a brawl of it early and force exchanges, where he can capitalize with a strong counterpunch or his massive kicks. When he stands around, his confidence seems to wane with each passing minute, especially as an opponent grows more comfortable working against him.

Schaub is a superb athlete and has a solid one-two, kicks and a very good ground game. Filipovic rarely, if ever, shoots for takedowns -- a tactical advantage that will allow Schaub to open up on the feet.

Filipovic has looked like a fighter that simply does not want to be in the cage in his losses against Frank Mir and Cheick Kongo and laconic even when he witness. Consider his fight with Anthony Perosh at UFC 110, where Filipovic let it go much longer than vintage Cro Cop ever would have. The 2005 version of Filipovic would be a favorite against pretty much any heavyweight alive today, but he has not adjusted well to the cage and the years seem to have taken something out of the reflexes and killer approach that once defined his game.

The Pick: Schaub will open strong and peel the apple accordingly, landing strikes and taking it to the ground if necessary, en route to a second-round stoppage.