UFC 144 Preview: The Main Card

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Middleweights
Tim Boetsch (14-4, 5-3 UFC) vs. Yushin Okami (26-6, 10-3 UFC)

The Matchup: After an up-and-down campaign in the UFC’s light heavyweight division, Boetsch seems to have found a home at 185 pounds. A new emphasis on cardio and diet has paid off for “The Barbarian” in the form of victories over Kendall Grove and Nick Ring since making the move. A wrestler by trade, Boetsch struggled to impose his will when matched up against larger opponents at 205 pounds.

He will find tough sledding against Okami, who is one of the biggest and most physical fighters in the weight class. One of the promotion’s true grinders, Okami likes to throw jabs from his southpaw stance to set up tie-ups against the cage. Okami has a strong judo base, so do not expect to see anything like the brilliant “Harai-Goshi” toss Boetsch executed against Ring at UFC 135.

While Boetsch has exhibited solid dirty boxing in the past, a clinch-fest favors Okami, who can transition to a Thai clinch to land knees or attempt to wrestle his opponent to the mat. Once in top position, the Japanese fighter is extremely difficult to sweep. “Thunder” can control a fight on the floor, but, in most cases, his ground-and-pound is not of the explosive fight-ending variety.

In his previous two fights, Boetsch was able to take his opponents to the ground 11 times -- more than his seven appearances at light heavyweight combined. The American will encounter much more resistance against Okami in this area, so forcing a brawl on the feet might be Boetsch’s best bet, considering his heavy hands and willingness to exchange. Though he is confident in his power, the Maine native fares better when he uses combinations to close the distance. A few well-placed punches when breaking free from tie-ups would also serve him well.

The Pick: Okami seems like exactly the type of matchup that Boetsch dropped a weight class to avoid. Unless he can bait the former No. 1 contender into a slugfest, Okami has the tools to nullify Boetsch’s skills. He will press Boetsch against the fence and use takedowns and top control to capture a decision.

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