Preview: UFC 261 ‘Usman vs. Masvidal 2’

UFC Women’s Strawweight Championship

#3 P4P | Weili Zhang (21-1, 5-0 UFC) vs. #4 P4P | Rose Namajunas (9-4, 7-3 UFC)

ODDS: Zhang (-200), Namajunas (+170)

China officially arrived on the global MMA scene in August 2019, as Zhang finished Jessica Andrade in under a minute to capture the UFC’s strawweight title, completing a stunning rise for both herself and the state of Chinese MMA. Zhang is the face of what essentially amounts to the UFC’s third attempt to find a star in the Chinese market, and it seems safe to say the third time has been the charm. Circa 2010, Zuffa tried to find some talent from the region and came away with Tiequan Zhang, who did not accomplish much over a six-fight stint in World Extreme Cagefighting and the UFC. Then came a renewed effort in 2013 and 2014, which included events in mainland Asia and a full-on season of “The Ultimate Fighter China.” In the end, that resulted in little of long-term importance, save for the signing of a currently ranked welterweight in Jingliang Li. China looked eons away from making any sort of impact at a global level in MMA, but shockingly, things started looking up by the time the UFC made a renewed push into China in 2017. The promotion’s debut in Shanghai was marked by Chinese fighters scoring legitimate wins—a far cry from the results in 2014—and a few months later saw the debut of Zhang, who looked set to become a strawweight contender immediately upon hitting the Octagon. Zhang had little trouble with Danielle Taylor and absolutely blew through Jessica Aguilar. With another one-sided win over Tecia Torres, it seemed clear that Zhang was set to fight for the title sooner rather than later. As it turns out, sooner was in fact Zhang’s next fight, as the UFC announced a card in Shenzhen that would see her challenge Andrade for UFC gold. It was clear that the UFC was allowing Zhang to skip the line a bit in the name of business interests, but she held up her end of the bargain, blasting Andrade in short order to leave no doubt about her historic title win. Zhang’s rise was so sudden that it figured to take a while for her to firmly be considered the cream of the crop at 115 pounds, but whatever questions and concerns existed about her as champion were dashed after all of one fight. Zhang’s lone title defense against Joanna Jedrzejczyk in March 2020 is on the shortlist of greatest fights of all-time—a five-round war that proved both women can hang with anyone within spitting distance of their weight class. Zhang is one of the UFC’s most important fighters outside of the cage, and now, she is finally set to once again prove she is one of the promotion’s best inside the cage, this time against Namajunas.

Namajunas has tried her best to lose some fans in recent weeks, but her own rise up the strawweight ranks has been an impressive example of someone overcoming their struggles to channel their natural talent. Namajunas has been open about her rough upbringing and struggles with mental health from the jump. That relatability, along with her talent and exciting approach to her fights, marked her as a potential star almost immediately after her pro debut. She got some notice for a 12-second flying armbar win in just her second professional fight and was the clear standout of her season of “The Ultimate Fighter” a shade over a year later, riding a wave of submissions into the UFC’s inaugural strawweight title fight against Carla Esparza. While Esparza essentially had her way with Namajunas on the mat, “Thug Rose” persevered and worked through her issues, becoming a much more precise striker to complement her venomous grappling game. Even as she improved, Namajunas had some trouble shaking her reputation as someone who could start to wilt under pressure. Despite her long frame, Namajunas typically reacted to trouble by clinching with her opponents—something that made her wins more difficult than they needed to be and even cost her a crucial top contender’s bout against Karolina Kowalkiewicz in 2016. That heavily factored into the buildup of her eventual title fight against Jedrzejczyk in late 2017. Jedrzejczyk was riding high as a dominant champion and made no bones about sensing weakness in her challenger, which made it all the more shocking when Namajunas knocked out the Pole in just a shade over three minutes. The rematch was a five-round war that saw Namajunas come out as the victor, and so it seemed that the newly established champion had finally conquered her demons. However, that narrative did take a bit of a hit in her subsequent two fights against Andrade. The first fight saw Namajunas start the bout in the crispest form of her career, only to start fading a bit and allow Andrade to lock up for some clinch exchanges. That, in turn, proved to be a fatal flaw when Andrade lifted Namajunas and dropped her on her head for a slam knockout. Namajunas did avenge the loss a year later, though some of the same worries persisted. She started off well but once again found herself flagging against Andrade’s relentless physicality by the time the fight was over. Still, Namajunas is clearly among the elite of the strawweight division and Zhang’s top remaining challenge, so it will be interesting to see if she can reclaim strawweight gold.

While Zhang’s win over Jedrzejczyk affirmed the champion as an elite fighter, there are still some questions about her. That is still just one fight, after all, and most of Zhang’s UFC career up to that point had been victories mostly defined by her opponents’ shortcomings and weaknesses. The Jedrzejczyk win did show that Zhang can handle a rangier striker, but Namajunas presents a lot more of a finishing threat and, in a much more nuanced way than Andrade, looks to be the only opponent to have any real potential of ending Zhang’s night early. That makes the first round or two of this fight particularly crucial. If Namajunas has anything approaching the form of her first fight against Andrade, she can cause a ton of damage early with her combination of range and speed, potentially scoring an early finish. While Zhang might not be a complete bulldozer like Andrade, she should similarly be able to make Namajunas fade if she is given five rounds with which to work. There is a power and physicality behind everything that Zhang does, and the Jedrzejczyk fight proved she can keep it up for 25 minutes without much issue. Namajunas has become a smarter fighter, but she does still have the tendency to clinch up with her opponents or even try to wrestle in the face of a consistent threat, which figures to be a losing approach against the firepower Zhang can bring to bear in close quarters. The submission threat that Namajunas brings should be a factor throughout the entire fight given that Zhang has not shown off much grappling in her UFC career, but once this fight settles into a groove, the champion should be enough of a bully to slowly take over. The pick is Zhang via decision.

Continue Reading » Shevchenko vs. Andrade