Preview: UFC 271 Prelims

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Women’s Flyweights

#15 WFLW | Casey O'Neill (8-0, 3-0 UFC) vs. #12 WFLW | Roxanne Modafferi (25-19, 4-7 UFC)

ODDS: O’Neill (-380), Modafferi (+290)

After 44 pro fights and nearly 19 years, Modafferi has announced that this will be her retirement bout. It is a minor miracle that “The Happy Warrior” lasted this long and a testament to her commitment to her craft. Modafferi was clearly a minus athlete, even by the standards of the pioneering days of women’s mixed martial arts, but she managed to get by on her grappling and submission skills. Then the game appeared to pass Modafferi by, as a stretch from 2010 to 2013—which did at least include her winning an exhibition match to get on the cast of “The Ultimate Fighter”—saw her go winless in six official fights. After her reality series stint did not lead anywhere past the season finale, Modafferi returned to Invicta Fighting Championships and shockingly reinvented herself. Buoyed by a cut to flyweight, Modafferi started adapting an awkward but effective striking style that once again allowed the best parts of her game to sing. Come 2017, it was time for Modafferi’s second appearance on “The Ultimate Fighter,” which went much better than the first. Modafferi eventually wound up in the UFC’s inaugural women’s flyweight title fight, losing to Nicco Montano, and has enjoyed a successful UFC career in the years since, marked by upset wins over Maycee Barber and Andrea Lee. Her 2021 campaign did seem to shut the door on one last title shot for Modafferi—losses to Viviane Araujo and Taila Santos were game efforts but saw the next generation of prospects cut ahead of her in line—but she does have a solid shot to go out on top against another top prospect in O’Neill. Representing both Scotland and Australia, O’Neill was an interesting prospect on the regional scene, where she showed a lot of right ideas as part of her pressuring approach but also faced some questions about her level of competition and her athleticism. The athleticism issue remains, particularly if O’Neill finds herself closer to title contention, but “King Courtney” has marched through resistance thus far, overwhelming Shana Dobson, Lara Procopio and Antonina Shevchenko for eventual stoppages on the ground. Procopio, the only solid grappler of the bunch, did seem to give O’Neill some initial issues, but she appears to be absolutely relentless and willing to wring every last ounce of effective offense out of her performances. O’Neill can strike a bit, but everything leads to the clinch and to takedowns, which means Modafferi is at least going to get her type of fight. That makes this matchup intriguing. O’Neill knows what she is doing but finds herself pitted against by far her most experienced and savvy opponent yet. Meanwhile, Modafferi will not be at the usual gigantic athletic gap that has marked her most one-sided recent losses. Strength against strength, it is hard not to pick the smart veteran, though this is basically a coinflip that should hopefully bring out the best in both fighters, particularly given the circumstances. The pick is Modafferi via narrow decision.

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