UFC 128 Preview: The Main Card

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Lightweights
Jim Miller vs. Kamal Shalorus

The Matchup: Lightweights collide in a head-strong matchup of aggressive scrappers. Miller has been on a tear, winning six straight, and with a record of 19-2, he has dropped decisions to Frankie Edgar and Gray Maynard, an indicator of what it takes to beat him.

Shalorus is a marvelously gifted wrestler with the ability to take down anyone simply by willing a single-leg. The problem? He suffers from a bad case of “strikeritis” -- the syndrome of striking excessively when one could take it to the mat and win in much easier fashion. Shalorus remains raw -- he only has nine bouts -- but he is a physical marvel with considerable skills given the short career he has had.

This one comes down to tactics and execution. Miller is pinpoint-sharp when it comes to both of these, showing a high level of conditioning and intensity in addition to making smart choices. Shalorus has a pretty stout chin and heavy hands but tends to wing punches and dare people to trade. Few foes try to take him down, which is exactly what Miller will attempt to do.

This could be one helluva match if Shalorus can stymie Miller’s takedowns attempts and force costly exchanges, but Miller is probably a little too savvy and experienced at this point. He has proven he belongs among the elite of the division and will mix in strikes with tie-ups and takedowns to wear down Shalorus.

Shalorus has also shown a penchant for tiring in the third round of his last couple bouts and struggled down the stretch against veteran Bart Palaszewski at WEC 53. Doing so against Miller is not a prescription for success.

The Pick: If he used his magnificent takedown ability more, Shalorus could be a legit Top 10 contender, but he has thus far shown more willingness to strike than he really needs to. Miller will outthink and outwork him en route to a late surge that results in a clear-cut decision win.

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