UFC 128 Preview: The Main Card

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Middleweights
Nate Marquardt vs. Dan Miller

The Matchup: Marquardt’s loss to Yushin Okami at UFC 122 denied him a second match with champion Anderson Silva, but since nearly everyone not named Chael Sonnen is outmuscled by the tough Okami lately, it is not a big setback. Marquardt remains a well-rounded fighter with stout striking and tons of experience.

Miller is something of a poor man’s Jon Fitch, eminently well-conditioned and hard-nosed with limited striking and a high work rate. His style is based around being able to outwrestle the other guy. If he can outwrestle and outwork an opponent, he normally wins, because he has proven very durable, as well.

This is a good matchup for Marquardt but by no means a lock. When he is the stronger guy and comfortable standing, he is very tough to beat.

Miller’s standup will have to be improved off previous showings, as it will be key to putting Marquardt on his back. Marquardt is too tough to simply overwhelm physically, so Miller will have to keep him honest by keeping his hands busy and Marquardt’s mind occupied. Otherwise, the former middleweight King of Pancrase will merely have to fend off low-percentage takedown and tie-up attempts while countering and dictating the action.

The Pick: Look for Marquardt to establish himself as the better striker, along with the fact that he is still a top middleweight. After getting stymied by Okami via decision in November, Marquardt needs a showcase win. He will bang on the feet and, halfway through the fight, take it to the mat, where he will control from top position and take a one-sided decision win.

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