Preview: UFC 261 ‘Usman vs. Masvidal 2’

Middleweights

#11 MW | Chris Weidman (15-5, 11-5 UFC) vs. #9 MW | Uriah Hall (16-9, 9-7 UFC)

ODDS: Weidman (-115), Hall (-105)

There is still quite a way to go until Weidman recaptures the glory of his peak, but at the very least, the former middleweight champion is finally coming off of a win. Whoever ended Anderson Silva’s dominant run over the middleweight division figured to become an instant star, and that wound up being Weidman, who never quite realized the promotional heights that most would have assumed. For one, while Silva never really had Weidman in any sort of danger, the Long Islander’s wins were not particularly clean in practice. Weidman’s title win via knockout came while Silva was in pure showman mode defensively, giving fans the out that he only got lucky to catch the champion with his guard down. While Weidman was dominating their immediate rematch, everything was overshadowed by the ending, which saw him check a kick and snap Silva’s leg for a horrific injury stoppage. It was not exactly the best start to make Weidman the division’s new star, and his reign never gained much momentum. Wins over Lyoto Machida and Vitor Belfort were strong performances in fun fights, but long injury layoffs kept Weidman from being front and center in the public consciousness. Then Weidman lost his title to Luke Rockhold in what ended as a savage beating and led to his career taking a complete downward spiral. The Rockhold loss started a stretch of five losses in six fights, and even when everything seemed to be clicking for Weidman, he still could not find a win. Fights against Yoel Romero and Ronaldo Souza were trending in Weidman’s direction until he suffered third-round finishes in both. A one-off move to light heavyweight seemed to be the final nail in the coffin for Weidman’s hopes at regaining relevancy. While Weidman had been a tough battler in the past, Dominick Reyes managed to knock him out quickly with one clean shot. That led Weidman right back to middleweight, where he managed to beat Omari Akhmedov in August. It was a sloppy affair that saw both men tire and give up control of the fight throughout, but at this point, a win is a win. The middleweight division remains wide open, so crazier things have happened than Weidman stringing together a few wins for the first time in six years and earning another title shot. However, that will have to start here in a rematch against Hall.

Right before Weidman unseated Silva as middleweight champ, there was some hype that Hall could be the next man to reign over the division. It was based almost entirely upon his run on “The Ultimate Fighter.” Hall was an absolute terror on the 17th season of the show, putting away opponents with flashy and violent finishes that still rank among the best highlights in the sport. A look back at Hall’s career to date suggested he could be a legitimate contender, as his two losses at the time were to then-top contender Weidman and ranked veteran Costas Philippou. However, that was all before the season finale—a flat split decision loss to Kelvin Gastelum that laid bare the duality that has defined Hall’s career. Even on “The Ultimate Fighter,” Hall seemed to struggle with what he was capable of doing to his fellow man, owing to his background as a victim of bullying. As a result, Hall is often content to have a slow-paced fight until he is in enough danger to feel pressed into action. That has led to fights where nothing much happens and Hall coasts to a loss, but it has also led to some of the most amazing comebacks of the last few years, with his uncorking some beautiful violence on the likes of Gegard Mousasi and Krzysztof Jotko just when all seemed lost. A change in camp in 2019 appeared to pay some dividends and force Hall into a more aggressive approach, as he was much more active in a win over Antonio Carlos Jr. In his last fight, Hall was mostly back to his old self, albeit against a legend in Silva. Hall was once again content to have a back-and-forth fight where nothing much happened until he landed the right blow to knock out the Brazilian. That could be a return to the old Hall, or it could also just be a one-off regression against the fighter that Hall seems to respect most. This fight against Weidman should answer a lot.

While it was good to see Weidman back in the win column, the outcome of this fight—as it often does—comes down to Hall’s mental approach. Even with the win over Akhmedov, Weidman’s durability is still in question, particularly as it relates to this fight. Reyes knocked him out with just one shot, and the current iteration of Akhmedov just is not much of a finisher. If Hall decides to uncork something and lands, it is likelier than not that he can put Weidman’s lights out or at least send things careening towards a finish. Will he? Weidman probably cannot help but press the issue between his pressure striking and his wrestling, and while the latter figures to result in some success, Hall has shown some improved grappling skills. More notably, he will probably feel the need to start fighting back after he gets taken down. Hall’s record of comeback wins and Weidman’s record of late losses line up too cleanly. The pick is Hall via knockout late in the second round.

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