Preview: UFC Fight Night 156 ‘Shevchenko vs. Carmouche 2’

Light Heavyweights

Volkan Oezdemir (15-4) vs. Ilir Latifi (14-6)

ODDS: Oezdemir (-140), Latifi (+120)

Hopefully the third time is the charm for this light heavyweight tilt, as it was scrapped from a June date in Stockholm and the Aug. 3 card in Newark, New Jersey. Things have evened out quite a bit for Oezdemir, who enjoyed a 2017 campaign that ranks among the most surprising years in the history of the sport. Oezdemir started the year as a nondescript regional heavyweight, but got the call that February to step in on late notice and take on Ovince St. Preux at 205 pounds, and from there, it was off to the races. First, Oezdemir earned a narrow decision win over St. Preux and with it a high ranking, though given that most felt the Swiss standout should have lost, things figured to correct themselves in short order. Instead, Oezdemir managed to polish off Misha Cirkunov and Jimi Manuwa in a combined 50 seconds, entering 2018 as one of the most unlikely title challengers in UFC history. Since then, Oezdemir’s luck has gone in the complete opposite direction, with three losses in as many fights. His title fight against Daniel Cormier was a straight outclassing, but a follow-up loss to Anthony Smith laid most of Oezdemir’s issues bare. He constantly forces pressure but tends to be either ineffective or inefficient. In the Smith fight, it was clearly the latter, as after two one-sided rounds, Oezdemir gassed on his way to being finished in the third round. Oezdemir corrected those issues a bit in his last bout, a March tilt against Dominick Reyes, but despite the strong performance, he was handed another loss on the scorecards. Given the current climate, Oezdemir probably is not in danger of falling off the roster, but a win here against Latifi is badly needed to rehab any hopes he has of becoming a title contender once again.

As for Latifi, it has been a strange run ever since the odd circumstances that surrounded his UFC debut. With Alexander Gustafsson injured days out of a headlining spot in Stockholm and the UFC needing a Swedish replacement due to the paperwork involved, Latifi got the call to play local hero in the main event, losing a one-sided bout to Gegard Mousasi. From there, “The Sledgehammer” figured to be little more than a fun curiosity as a human bowling ball with knockout power. However, Latifi eventually won enough fights that he had to be taken seriously. His squat frame and natural strength make him a tough test in any grappling situations, and when combined with his finishing ability, it makes for a surprisingly tough puzzle for a wide swath of the light heavyweight division. Yet there does seem to be a clear ceiling, as Latifi’s last fight against Corey Anderson showed. For all of his explosive moments, Latifi is generally a low-output fighter who has difficulty winning rounds, and after enough bursts of offense, he tends to tire in the latter stretches of the fight. At 36, Latifi is bound to hit the point of diminishing returns, but in the meantime, this fight against Oezdemir might be the final point to determine whether he is a fringe contender or a gatekeeper from here on out.

Oezdemir should be able to win the balance of this one, but it remains an open question as to whether or not he survives all 15 minutes. Oezdemir is at his best when he pressures his opponents. Traditionally, that has led to either a finish or Oezdemir wearing himself out, but the Reyes fight showed some long-overdue ability for “No Time” to pace himself, even if it did not net him the win in the end. If that version of Oezdemir shows up here, he has a solid shot to win rounds and take the decision. Even a slowed-down Oezdemir throws much more in terms of output than Latifi. However, it is also not that difficult to see Latifi changing this fight with one big moment. Oezdemir’s defense has never been particularly strong, and the Switzerland native’s tendency to take things to the clinch might not serve him all that well against a fireplug like Latifi. Maybe this looks a lot like the Anderson fight, with Oezdemir mixing up things enough to stay out of danger and wear out “The Sledgehammer,” but he figures to present too many opportunities for Latifi to turn the tide over the course of the bout. The pick is Latifi via third-round finish.

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