Preview: UFC Vegas 100 ‘Magny vs. Prates’

Women’s Strawweights

#14 WSW | Gillian Robertson (14-8, 11-6 UFC) vs. #13 WSW | Luana Pinheiro (11-3, 3-2 UFC)

ODDS: Robertson (-340), Pinheiro (+270)

Two strawweights look for a big win in this pairing. Robertson has had an interesting UFC career to date, as “The Savage” has had a ton of impressive moments while often hitting a hard ceiling. She’s the all-time submission leader in the UFC among women, and that about says it all when it comes to Robertson’s strengths. If she can get an opponent on the mat, particularly if she’s on top, she can implement some surprisingly vicious ideas. Getting there can be an adventure, if things don’t go terribly wrong outright. Robertson has obviously put in some work to become a better striker at a technical level, but her comfort goes out the window against opponents who can hit her hard, at which point she becomes much less effective. After exclusively fighting at flyweight inside the UFC, Robertson decided to cut down to strawweight at the beginning of 2023, a move which has only further emphasized her strengths and her weaknesses. Robertson’s lone setback at 115 pounds thus far, which came in June 2023 against Tabatha Ricci, proved that she is now quite slow-footed for the division and could wind up simply getting outmaneuvered on the feet for three rounds. On the plus side, when Robertson has been able to get to her wrestling and grappling as a strawweight, she’s now even more of a terror than ever, with her mauling of Michelle Waterson-Gomez in June standing out as a particularly impressive effort. It’s unclear how that will all fare against Pinheiro, who’s looking to break a two-fight losing streak and prove she’s still a going concern at strawweight.

Pinheiro ran through her pre-UFC competition with a pared down but effective game, leaning on her athleticism to score quick finishes through a combination of knockout punches and high-amplitude judo throws. Even after earning a UFC contract, it still took a while for Pinheiro to prove herself. Her UFC debut ended quickly in a disqualification; a sophomore effort against Sam Hughes resulted in an expected win on paper; and she was then out of action for roughly a year and a half. A win over Waterson-Gomez, albeit via controversial split decision, in April 2023 seemed to finally serve as confirmation that she was a prospect to watch. Unfortunately, nothing has really clicked for Pinheiro after her subsequent steps up in competition. She wore herself out against Amanda Ribas and got knocked out late for her troubles, and she had a surprising amount of difficulty with Angela Hill before the former Invicta Fighting Championships titleholder managed to clamp on a fight-ending guillotine choke. On the plus side for Pinheiro, Ricci’s performance against Robertson serves as a template for the kind of approach she can take here. Pinheiro has the intersection of speed and power to run ahead of Robertson for a decent part of the fight. With that said, the issue is that she might not have Ricci’s ability to keep that up for three rounds. If Pinheiro instead decides to pivot to using her judo, it might just wind up being a bad idea to lock up with such a dangerous grappling threat. Pinheiro could just build an early lead and take Canadian out of the fight mentally, but the read is instead that she will eventually wear herself out and give Robertson enough of an opening to get to her best weapons. The pick is Robertson via third-round submission.

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Magny vs. Prates
De Ridder vs. Meerschaert
Sopai vs. Turcios
Robertson vs. Pinheiro
Abdul-Malik vs. Todorovic
The Prelims