UFC 179 ‘Aldo vs. Mendes 2’ Preview

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FEATHERWEIGHTS

Darren Elkins (17-4, 7-3 UFC) vs. Lucas Martins (15-1, 3-1 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: This profiles as a quick-paced action bout and a potential “Fight of the Night.” A product of the resurgent Chute Boxe camp out of Curitiba, Brazil, Martins has evolved greatly from the raw youngster we saw enter the UFC against Edson Barboza almost two years ago, and he is currently riding a three-fight winning streak. Grinder Elkins badly needs to get back on track after losing two of his last three to Chad Mendes and Jeremy Stephens, with a contentious win over Hatsu Hioki between them.

It is impossible to overstate just how raw the Brazilian was when he debuted, and he has made good use of the time since then to blossom into a talented, vicious offensive fighter. Martins can really crack on the feet and features particularly sharp combination counterpunching -- with the occasional standing elbow -- at close range, a steady diet of low and middle kicks at kicking distance and a tendency to mix up his flurries in slick head-body combinations. The clinch is another strong point for Martins, as he makes excellent use of elbows in tight. Martins’ takedown defense has been solid if not fantastic, but he scrambles well and can grab the occasional opportunistic submission. His pace is fantastic, and he pumps out a constant stream of offense as he pressures his opponent toward the fence. The problem is defense -- Martins has nice head movement but does not utilize it enough -- and the rapid pace at which he works, which essentially ensure he will eat punches.

Elkins is a relentless pressure fighter who relies on cardio, toughness and determination to win fights. His striking is underwhelming and defensively porous, with a distinct lack of head movement and great vulnerability to counters. He strings together the occasional combination, but for the most part, Elkins’ work at range consists of single punches and kicks mostly designed to cover his forward movement and distract from his level changes. The core of Elkins’ game is wrestling, and his arsenal consists mainly of doubles and singles, preferably chained and executed against the fence, as he lacks a particularly explosive shot. From top position, Elkins is mostly a grinder, throwing the occasional ground strike and looking to pass every once in a while, but he is not particularly dynamic. Still, Elkins is harder to stop than he should be, and his pace and ability to wear down opponents are considerable assets.

BETTING ODDS: Elkins (-180), Martins (+150)

THE PICK: The keys to victory for Martins will be stuffing Elkins’ initial shots to create space and keeping his back away from the cage, something with which he struggled early in his career and which has contributed to his tendency to eat enormous punches. Fortunately for Martins, Elkins’ style plays directly into his strengths, as the American’s tendency to get hit with counters bodes poorly against a fighter who throws them as well as Martins. Given enough space, I think Martins can stuff Elkins’ takedowns, keep it at range and consistently land punches as the American charges forward. The pick is Martins by knockout in the second round.

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