UFC News & FeaturesHeavyweights
Sergey Spivak (14-3, 5-3 UFC) vs. #14 HW | Augusto Sakai (15-4-1, 4-3 UFC)ODDS: Spivak (-225), Sakai (+190)
It has been a sudden fall for Sakai, who has gone from heavyweight prospect to afterthought over the last two years. Sakai has rarely been inspiring over the course of his Bellator MMA and UFC stints, but he has been mildly interesting as a heavyweight with some legitimate skill and relative youth. Sakai has found his success going against the heavyweight norm, trending towards more of a high-output, low-power style and using a smothering clinch game as a backup plan. It was not much on paper or in practice, but sheer consistency and just enough durability was enough to march Sakai to main event status opposite Alistair Overeem in 2020. That is when Sakai hit a hard ceiling. Overeem stayed patient and turned the fight around for a fifth-round stoppage, and Sakai then subsequently suffered knockout losses to Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Tai Tuivasa, raising some concerns about the efficacy of his approach if he is unable to survive against heavyweight’s hardest hitters. At the very least, Spivak is not cut from that knockout artist cloth. Moldova’s “Polar Bear” also goes against the typical heavyweight mold as a dogged wrestler with some interesting grappling skill. That has been enough of a change-up in itself for Spivak to rack up some surprising wins, but he has historically struggled against the quicker athletes of the division who can blast him before he even gets out of the gate. Given that Sakai is not much of a knockout artist, either, this sets up as a weird and ugly fight where he might be able to outpace Spivak on the feet, though not in inspiring fashion; and he will be dependent on actually keeping this fight standing. Spivak has shown some impressive ability to throw around opponents when given the need, such as in his last win over Greg Hardy, so he gets the narrow nod as the favorite since Sakai is unlikely to discourage him from that approach. Nevertheless, this could be a particularly ugly grind. The pick is Spivak via decision.
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