Featherweights
Rick Glenn (21-5-1) vs. Kevin Aguilar (15-1): It is always fun when an announced fight turns into a bout featuring two completely different competitors. In this case, injuries changed a slated Gilbert Melendez-Arnold Allen tilt into this confrontation between Glenn and promotional newcomer Aguilar. Over the last two years, Glenn has proven himself to be a tough out, and while clearly a low-percentile athlete, he is an absolute grinder. Glenn has not suffered a knockout loss in his 12-year career, and he is always active -- a trait that allowed him to swipe a controversial split decision from Dennis Bermudez in his most recent appearance. Aguilar has run roughshod over the Legacy Fighting Championship and Legacy Fighting Alliance organizations, but he had to wait a while for the UFC call, particularly after his win on Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series was viewed as quite unimpressive. However, that has turned him into a readymade UFC-level featherweight, even if he gets a tough ask here. It is an odd fight, given that a lot of it may hinge on who decides to embrace the grind, since both men have terrible takedown defense. If that is a wash, then Glenn’s pressure and volume can probably overcome Aguilar’s single-shot knockout power on the feet, especially when considering the former’s durability. Even if Glenn finds himself on the mat for most of this fight, the Bermudez bout showed he can still win scorecards from the bottom. The pick is Glenn via decision. ODDS: Aguilar (-125), Glenn (+105)Advertisement
Flyweights
Joseph Benavidez (25-5) vs. Alex Perez (21-4): Ray Borg getting pulled from his fight with Joseph Benavidez a few weeks ago was a huge disappointment, but at least the UFC managed to put the latter back into an interesting matchup on a quick turnaround. Benavidez was long considered the second-best flyweight in the UFC behind now-departed former champ Demetrious Johnson, but he finally relinquished that title in June, losing a narrow decision to Sergio Pettis. Benavidez had increasingly relied on his veteran wiles for a few fights, but the Pettis loss was the first fight in which he looked to be at a stark physical disadvantage, particularly coming off of a major knee injury. With that said, it was still a narrow loss, and Benavidez’s wrestling game still looked strong. Now Benavidez has to deal with another rising contender in Perez. A veteran of over 20 fights prior to his UFC debut, Perez was apparently not quite a finished product. After relying on a strong grappling game to win his first few bouts, Perez unleashed a shockingly effective power striking game in a firefight against Jose Torres in August, winning via knockout in short order. This might be the hardest fight on the card to call. Perez looks to be a strong enough wrestler to neutralize a lot of Benavidez’s grappling, and the Pettis fight showed that there are increasing concerns about Benavidez’s ability to win a pure kickboxing fight against a younger, better athlete. The pick is Perez via decision. ODDS: Perez (-125), Benavidez (+105)Lightweights
Roosevelt Roberts (6-0) vs. Darrell Horcher (13-3): Horcher has had a tough go of it the last few years, to say the least. After making a name for himself as a top prospect in the Northeast, he finally made his UFC debut in 2016 but did so as a late replacement against Khabib Nurmagomedov. After a one-sided loss, Horcher figured to get his UFC career going in earnest but was involved in a near-fatal motorcycle accident before getting booked for his next fight. The road to recovery took over a year, and since he came back, Horcher has settled nicely into the middle tier of the UFC’s lightweight division. He serves as a gatekeeper here against Roberts, a Dana White’s Tuesday Night Contender Series alum who fits into the typical mold of a fighter from that track into the UFC; he is a raw but projectible athlete. However, despite a reedy frame that suggests he is most comfortable striking, Roberts is also able to rely on a strong grappling game, as he showed in his DWTNCS fight against Garrett Gross. Roberts’ defensive wrestling is the question mark here, as Horcher’s success seems to depend on his ability to have all phases of the fight working in his favor. Roberts looks strong enough on limited film that he becomes the pick via decision. ODDS: Roberts (-280), Horcher (+240)Welterweights
Tim Means (27-10-1) vs. Ricky Rainey (13-5): Means has been an action hero at welterweight for a while now, but there are some signs “The Dirty Bird” is slowing down. It has been about two years since we saw a vintage Means performance, as his last few bouts have all been range kickboxing contests that lead to slow decisions. He will look to get back on track against Rainey, who was a somewhat surprising signing earlier this year. A part-time training partner of Stephen Thompson, Rainey has a tendency to embrace a lot of Thompson’s worst qualities. A lot of his fights are slow-paced range kickboxing contests that fail to provide any sort of exciting action. It will be interesting to see how Means handles his opponent being the taller, longer fighter, but he should have a well-rounded enough skill set to take care of things, particularly if he relies on his clinch or wrestling game. The pick is Means via decision. ODDS: Means (-340), Rainey (+280)Bantamweights
Raoni Barcelos (12-1) vs. Chris Gutierrez (12-3-1): Barcelos did not enter the UFC with a ton of hype, but early returns are promising. Despite coming from a Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, Barcelos looks quite comfortable on the feet and ran over Kurt Holobaugh for a third-round knockout in his debut earlier this year. That fight was at 145 pounds. Barcelos cuts down to bantamweight here against a promotional newcomer in Gutierrez. The 27-year-old Gutierrez has put together a solid resume over the course of a five-year career and has a well-rounded skill set to back it up. He seems to prefer a range striking game with some particularly effective leg kicks but can hang on the ground, as well, as his October submission win over Ray Rodriguez showed. This should be a close fight, but Barcelos’ athleticism pops a lot more on film. The pick is Barcelos via decision. ODDS: Barcelos (-470), Gutierrez (+375)Heavyweights
Maurice Greene (5-2) vs. Michel Batista (4-0): Greene provided most of the drama on this season thanks to some alcohol-fueled antics, but the former kickboxer is a solid enough heavyweight flier for the UFC to take. At 6-foot-7, Greene cuts an imposing figure and has enough grappling skills to not embarrass himself if it goes to the mat. However, getting clubbed and subbed by Juan Francisco Espino Dieppa was still a bad look. At any rate, Greene gets his UFC shot against a castmate in Batista, who is a one-dimensional wrestler. With that said, it is quite a dimension. Batista represented Cuba at the 2008 Summer Olympics and finished just off the podium in freestyle wrestling. Greene is probably the more well-rounded fighter, as Batista’s striking game is rather plodding and passive. Nevertheless, Batista should still be able to grind out a win by decision. ODDS: N/AWomen’s Featherweights
Leah Letson (4-1) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (4-2-2): Wisconsin’s Letson was already under UFC contract when this season started, and she acquitted herself well enough on the show, winning an absolute war with Bea Malecki before falling to Macy Chiasson in the semifinals. Letson’s style is built on aggression and durability. While she is not the prettiest fighter technically, that does not seem to matter, as she consistently makes things happen. She takes on Stoliarenko, who makes some history as Lithuania’s first UFC entrant. Stoliarenko has some background in kempo, but the best part of her game is her grappling, even if her loss to Pannie Kianzad shows she has some trouble getting things to her realm. Letson is aggressive enough that Stoliarenko catching a submission, particularly late, would not be shocking. However, nothing about Stoliarenko’s game suggests it is going to scare Letson if she cannot get the finish. The pick is Letson via decision. ODDS: N/ARelated Articles
