Preview: UFC 309 Prelims

Welterweights

Oban Elliott (11-2, 2-0 UFC) vs. Bassil Hafez (9-4-1, 1-1 UFC)

ODDS: Elliott (-250), Hafez (+205)

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Even if Elliott doesn’t go much further than he has now, “The Welsh Gangster” has already overachieved to a certain extent. Elliott had enough charisma to earn a contract via Dana White’s Contender Series in 2023, even if his performance didn’t particularly deserve one. Elliott was a bit lucky to get the decision after a workmanlike showing that was solid if unimpressive. That has typically summed up Elliott’s game. He can strike from range and he can wrestle and he has heart and he has cardio, but there’s just not a ton of explosive athleticism or finishing ability that he brings to the table. Despite those physical shortcomings, Elliott has looked on point in wins over Val Woodburn and Preston Parsons, the latter of which was impressive given Parsons’ typical level of aggression. That’s a performance the Welshman will likely need to replicate against Hafez.

Hafez had a decent enough regional record before getting the late-notice UFC call in 2023, when he made an impressive accounting of himself against Jack Della Maddalena, using an aggressive wrestling game to find some success against a fighter who has since become a top welterweight contender. Part of that success was likely due to Della Maddalena coming in at less than peak form after some chaos trying to find him a fight, but Hafez continued to look solid against Mickey Gall in June, winning a decision in what turned into an entertaining war. Hafez showed a more well-rounded game that time out, but the ethos of his approach was just as apparent. Whatever Hafez commits to, he does so with full power. That horsepower does come at a cost, as the third round has typically been where Hafez is least effective, and that could cost him against an opponent as dogged as Elliott. With that said, the call is that Hafez can win at least two rounds before that becomes an issue and survive the rest of the day. The pick is Hafez via decision.

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