Prime Picks: UFC Kansas City ‘Garry vs. Prates’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship took the slightest break last weekend to give some upcoming cards space to breathe. This first of four straight weeks of UFC coverage—not counting the latest Road to UFC season on May 22-23—gives fans something to cheer about, literally and figuratively, as the bouts will take place in an actual arena: the T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, Missouri, to be exact. Betting lines are a veritable shotgun spread around the board, so join the UFC on ESPN 66 edition of Prime Picks as we pick our shots that include a pair of huge upsets and two anticipated business-as-usual performances.

Anthony Smith (+350)

In what world is Mingyang Zhang, a gunslinger who was actually knocked out several years ago by Askar Mozharov, a nearly -500 favorite against anyone in his division? After all, this is a 26-year-old who has only won twice in the Octagon, smoking Brendson Ribeiro and Osman Diaz last year. There’s nothing inherently wrong with names like Ribeiro or Diaz, but they are a far cry from the UFC’s No. 15 205-pounder. Even with Smith on the downslide and stating to anyone who will listen that this is his last pro fight—we will see—it is not as simple as his losing to every opponent and crumbling to dust. Even those who did knock him out, like Dominick Reyes or Khalil Rountree, had to drag him into deep waters and keep punching. This is not something the favorite from China has displayed, with his own 11-fight winning streak consisting entirely of first-round stoppages.

Those who beat Smith rarely do so by running through him. If you’re looking for any recent relevant defeat to point that “Lionheart” will fade when the going gets rough, Thiago Santos battered him to the body seven years ago at middleweight 63 seconds into the second round. That’s still over twice as long as the average fight time for Zhang on his current stretch, with adversaries seemingly exploding upon first contact. The dilapidated version of Smith appearing on Saturday still has some fire left to go out on a win, and Zhang is so ludicrously favored that reasonable bets currently include Zhang by knockout (-275, still high) or the Smith upset. Go with the latter for one last feel-good moment in the storied career of “Lionheart.”

Michel Pereira (-142)

It took an Anthony Hernandez at the height of his powers in the late stretches of the bout to get past the surging Pereira. The former welterweight moved up and seemingly did not look back, rattling off finish after finish in his new division while becoming an actual factor instead of a novelty. The high-flying antics were dulled to a degree, although the Brazilian still got away with a body stomp of Ihor Potieria when the former performed a mid-fight backflip. Hernandez did not fall for the traps and tricks of “Demolidor,” instead largely controlling the action round after round; the only scorecard he did not win was the first round on Derek Cleary’s tally. As Hernandez picked up the pace, Pereira could not keep up. Now, he falls back to Earth against a slugger in Abusupiyan Magomedov who has known weaknesses that can be exploited by the mild favorite.

If nothing else, “Abus” is a frontrunner, surging ever forward until resistance beats him back. He laughed off Dustin Stoltzfus in seconds, only to find Sean Strickland in front of him months later with fists in his face and banter in his ears. Magomedov folded at the first sign of adversity, and a subsequent outing against Caio Borralho did not inspire much confidence even if viewers thought the Russian won. The late stoppage of Bruno Ferreira did make some wonder if Magomedov had finally turned the cardio corner and could get the job done through his wrestling. This type of approach will not get Magomedov past Pereira or many other names with numbers next to them. Unless Pereira walks face-first into a punch—which is not entirely outside the realm of possibility given that he can be careless—he can take over early and make the Russian fight off his back foot until a late stoppage materializes or the final bell rings.

Andre Muniz (+370)

When it comes to the line selection for this middleweight encounter between Ikram Aliskerov and the drastically different fortunes of Muniz, it’s almost as surprising as Zhang that Aliskerov hovers around -500. This is an intriguing prediction, because it means that Aliskerov would be expected to win in about 85% of all the fights the two hypothetically share. Is confidence that high in Aliskerov? He may have impressed by wrecking Phil Hawes and Warlley Alves, but to then leap up to the Robert Whittaker level and get dusted means there’s a chasm of a difference between the competitors. Is Muniz closer to the realm of Whittaker or is he more akin to the Alves and Hawes of the world? We would still lean towards the former, even though MMA is a sport of “what have you done for me lately” and the Brazilian has posted just one win since 2022.

Like the aforementioned Magomedov, the UFC did Aliskerov no favors at all by catapulting him into the stratosphere of the middleweight elites. Perhaps he had some shine because of his loss to Khamzat Chimaev, but a first-round knockout loss is still just a first-round knockout loss. Some could say Aliskerov performed well before getting deprived of his consciousness with a single concussive blow but only if they forget that Aliskerov had his chin checked and then some. Muniz is not of the school that will give Aliskerov a hard time on the feet, but his armbar is the stuff of dreams—and nightmares, to some. The Russian has never before been submitted, so this might not be the time that box is checked, but unless he blazes through Muniz, he better stay on high alert. Similar to the main event, the line seems so off-kilter that the best play may be the plus money.

Matt Schnell (-175)

Betting on “Danger” Schnell is a dangerous proposition, because he can look like a world-beater and then slip on a banana peel into a ninja choke. The vulnerabilities for Schnell remain when the fight goes to grappling, and he will stare down an opponent who specializes exclusively in ground fighting. To make Schnell’s life easier, he will not be battling a choke artist with surprising pop in his hands, as Jimmy Flick is of the “means to an end” level of fisticuffs. There’s a reason he has a zero in the column for knockout victories. Why hit someone and risk damaging your hand when you can just wrangle them horizontal and smother them with your shoulder?

On paper, the relatively recent stoppage losses for Schnell make a win on the horizon seem far away. Gone will be the crisp boxing of Steve Erceg or the chained takedown efforts of Cody Durden. Flick instead will be scrambling like Tim Elliott, looking for a limb to snare or neck to choke. It is to the advantage of Schnell that his flimsy takedown defense rate of 50% may seem like a stone wall on the first shot from “The Brick.” Even if Flick averages a comical number of submissions every 15 minutes, he has to get the fight to the ground by any means necessary. There always exists the opportunity that Schnell falls into a guillotine or is trapped by a sudden flying triangle, but overall, his skills—high volume, decent power for 125 pounds and a considerably higher striking defense rate than his foe—give him more than a leg up over Flick.