Prime Picks: UFC Vegas 101 ‘Dern vs. Ribas 2’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship will starting its year with UFC Fight Night 249—an underwhelming UFC Apex-hosted show and far from its best foot forward. A slew of newcomers joins the promotion for its first January offering, and betting lines are expectedly scattershot. Let’s start 2025 by taking home some dough with a rematch that should look like its predecessor and a handful of overlooked underdogs.

Amanda Ribas (-195)

On the main card of UFC Fight Night 161 a bit over five years ago, Mackenzie Dern and Ribas tangled for superiority in the talent-rich women’s strawweight division. Ribas emerged the clear victor. The Brazilian-born competitor defused Dern every step of the way, stifling the latter’s excellent grappling and even turning it against her at some points. The striking vastly went the way of the much sharper Ribas, as Dern found herself hitting air as she landed less than 15% of her significant strikes while not being able to buy a takedown. Surprisingly little has changed since their first encounter, making Ribas a choice option for the headliner.

Usually, fighters in the -200 range are skipped over in Prime Picks unless there is a solid reason to go after them, and that’s the case for Ribas. Even in her last fight in August, Dern’s sloppy striking and energy-inefficient takedown attempts barely got her past Lupita Godinez, with some observers believing “Loopy” had squeaked by. Meanwhile, Ribas has only lost to Top 5 foes in two weight classes, with no shame getting outgunned by Rose Namajunas or Maycee Barber. Of the two, Ribas appears to have leveled up more, displaying fearless attacks like spinning wheel kicks in the face of danger, confident that her ground game is solid enough to keep her safe. The two will have five rounds to get things done, but unless Ribas falls into a very unlikely trap, she can take advantage of a fatiguing Dern and possibly even procure a late stoppage.

Carlston Harris (+125)

The first of three plus-money plays carries out in the co-main attraction, as two aging welterweights duke it out at a combined age of 75. In many cases, this would be the type of pairing to avoid betting on like the plague due to the unknown nature of the elder statesmen’s depletion. However, under the new regime of drug testing, older fights have seen an unexpected resurgence in both staying and stopping power. While neither Harris nor Ponzinibbio found that fountain of youth in 2024, the way in which the fighters performed is telling. The Argentinian was barely beaten to the punch by a spinning Russian on the brink of 40, and Harris walked into a lethal right hand from Kalinn Williams, who does that from time to time. As of now, Harris has more ways to win than the 38-year-old Ponzinibbio, making him primed for an upset.

Once quite durable, both Jingliang Li and Kevin Holland shut Ponzinibbio’s lights out in fairly recent memory. Harris also could not escape the “action fighter” category at welterweight due to crushing losses, although no one bats an eye at a spinning hook kick knockout at the hands—and feet—of Shavkat Rakhmonov. Harris is an opportunist who is able to snatch up a win suddenly, and he pursues it without mercy. His three anaconda chokes—all depriving his opponent of their consciousness—within his last five victories display the ferociousness of his attacks, as he can put someone out before they realize it. In this encounter, Harris should be able to handle anything thrown at him on the feet, and grappling should be his wheelhouse. He might not become the first to ever submit Ponzinibbio, but Harris will try.

Chris Curtis (+215)

It’s difficult to point out exactly where within the “Cinderella” story that is Curtis fits at this stage in his career. Winner of two of his last six, he has hit a ceiling, even if it has not been the type that knocks him out. After a rousing back-and-forth five-rounder against two-time foe Brendan Allen, “The Action Man” gets a much-needed step down in competition against Roman Kopylov. The Russian striker has undoubtedly been a surprise, as most expected he would wash out of the UFC on the heels of a third loss to Alessio Di Chirico. Instead, Kopylov iced the Italian and went on to rack up a body count in 2023. Anthony Hernandez took the wind out of his sails, and he bounced back against the overhyped Cesar Almeida. All this has shown Kopylov can feast on the lower-level UFC middleweight, but Curtis is not that. These odds appear off-kilter, even if Curtis turns 38 in six months.

Kopylov has presented himself as someone who will stand and bang, damn the torpedoes, full steam ahead. Before his last fight, he had barely focused on grappling, showing he had added another arrow to his quiver. That will not matter against the stalwart takedown defense of the American, who will gladly sprawl and brawl to his heart’s content. That kind of knock-down, drag-out affair should not favor one of these 185ers over the other, making it a bit of an oddity that Kopylov is so heavily favored at around -260. The Russian rarely puts up numbers when toeing the line against opponents, preferring to swing hard and walk away. Overswinging against a quick volume puncher like Curtis will work to his disadvantage. This presents as the kind of contest where Curtis could pocket two rounds and let Kopylov buzz past him lobbing haymakers until the final horn.

Victoria Dudakova (+500)

Barring something extraordinary, no 6-1 fighter should be a -750 favorite over an 8-1 opponent in the Octagon. In this case, the extremely talented Fatima Kline will come in that heavily favored, despite losing her promotional debut to the underrated Jasmine Jasudavicius. Kline seemed flat a step up at flyweight, and the move down to her preferred weight range could help—or it could take some of the fuel out of her tanks. The two share a similar frame, and Kline may not able to get away with bullying the Russian as much as bettors expect. Her training partner, Erin Blanchfield, would reasonably see odds like these, but after Kline stumbled on her first UFC outing, it seems amiss for the betting disparity to be this wide.

Kline’s hands are not to the level she needs them to be if she hopes to contend at strawweight, as they are something more in line with a Dern-style, means-to-an-end assault where she would rather close the distance than land flush. Blanchfield found this same problem when encountering Manon Fiorot and Namajunas; her striking was not quite up to par. The decision in her favor against the latter is something saved for another day. Still, the lack of excellent kickboxing from either woman leads to plenty of clinching, grappling, failed takedowns and secondary attempts. A dirty, grimy fight full of work against the wall is one that could be scored any which way, and all Dudakova has to do is convince two judges that she won two rounds to score the major upset.