Prime Picks: UFC on ESPN 39 ‘Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship on Saturday in Las Vegas keeps its content machine churning with an event that appears to be a far cry from its predecessor. Of the 12 competitors on the prelims, only three sport winning UFC records, although it improves slightly when moving to the main draw. Betting odds are fairly close for the majority of the show, with just two of the 12 matches featuring a favorite at -250 or above. The UFC on ESPN 39 edition of Prime Picks features a former champion who should play spoiler as a sizable underdog, a heavyweight desperation match and two slight female favorites who still present some value on their lines.

Rafael dos Anjos (+190)

Even with nearly a dozen losses on his UFC ledger, the former lightweight champ is perhaps one of the best examples of a “trap fight” competitor. The experience, both in five-round battles and for having faced basically every kind of opponent one could, is firmly in his favor, as he sports over five times the number of trips to the Octagon as Rafael Fiziev. The Brazilian cannot be counted out, especially after relocating full-time to Nova Uniao, a team that deserves all the accolades it receives. While the only documented way to beat Fiziev as a pro is to drill him with a spinning back kick in less than 90 seconds, dos Anjos can exploit the striker’s weaknesses by pouring on the pressure and embracing his beloved grind. As nearly a 2-to-1 underdog, dos Anjos is not a bet to be avoided.

The pressure boxing of the former champion and his dogged determination to get the fight where he wants it represents the kind of style that can break fighters. Arguably the possessor of some of the most underrated grappling in the sport, dos Anjos can chain takedowns together and is not remotely afraid to stall out a position, wait for an opening and snag it. Fast approaching his 38th birthday, the bottom still has not fallen out, as he ran roughshod over an outmatched Renato Carneiro over five non-title, non-headlining rounds in March. While his takedowns remained a constant, the Brazilian displayed a power in his striking not seen since he blasted Benson Henderson in 2014. Even with Fiziev the superior on-paper fighter on the feet, the consistent threat of takedowns, clinch exchanges and continuous forward movement make dos Anjos an extremely live underdog.

The number of fighters who have put dos Anjos away currently sits at two: Jeremy Stephens in 2008 and Eddie Alvarez for the belt in 2016. Otherwise, the chin has held up in nearly historical fashion—the lone knockdown dos Anjos has suffered came in his UFC debut against the aforementioned Stephens. If anyone can crack it again, it might be Fiziev, a dynamic finisher with kicks for days. Should the Tiger Muay Thai coach get his kicking game going and feels comfortable to let them fly at all targets with impunity, dos Anjos could find himself in danger. Cardio may be a question for “Ataman,” who has never competed beyond the 15-minute mark, while dos Anjos has practically never had issue fighting that far. The submission threat would come from dos Anjos, although Fiziev is notoriously difficult to ground. It might turn into a grueling affair if the former champion implements his game, but it makes him a very worthy play.

Jared Vanderaa-Chase Sherman Lasts Under 2.5 Rounds (-145)

These heavyweights scrape the bottom of the struggling division at the moment, with a combined four victories opposite 13 defeats inside the Octagon. The losing fighter, barring a fluke incident, will almost certainly earn his walking papers. Whether it is a man in Vanderaa who will have earned his fifth loss in six UFC outings or Sherman, who will drop his 10th bout in the Octagon, is immaterial for the picking of this match. Instead, the expectation is that one fighter will pull off a finish to keep a place on the roster for now. While plus money for the under of 1.5 rounds looked tasty, the catch-most of a stoppage coming within 12:30 of the three-round bout is the smarter option in case an accumulation-of-damage finish comes late into the second or early in Round 3.

Vanderaa’s best quality may be his sheer size, as he is one of a small number of UFC heavyweights who cuts weight to reach the 266-pound limit. A lumbering striker who has little to no interest dragging the fight down to the mat, he will fight a willing brawler in Sherman who will meet him in the middle and gladly throw hands. Of the two, Sherman is faster, sharper and throws with higher volume, but Vanderaa’s beard is a solid one. While Vanderaa has suffered a pair of knockout losses, both came from prolonged ground-and-pound; this will not likely happen unless he gets dropped by Sherman and “The Vanilla Gorilla” looks to finish the job down on the canvas. The UFC likely put this fight together to pit two big swingers against one another, and the expectation and promising selection of this lasting less than 2.5 rounds will ring true.

Cynthia Calvillo (-150)

This main card scrap comes at flyweight between two ladies on tough losing streaks and a potential roster cut in sight. Once a dark horse strawweight contender, Calvillo could not find her footing at 115 pounds on the scale and had a trip up a division mandated by her promotion. A win against Jessica Eye made her seem like one to watch, even if it resulted in a sluggish affair, but a trio of one-sided defeats halted any possible momentum. The UFC has given her what could be a softball in fellow skidding former strawweight Nina Nunes, with the latter moving up to flyweight for the first time since 2013. With grappling firmly on Calvillo’s side, this bout has all the makings of a clear-cut wrestling clinic with threatened submissions and minutes of dominant control.

A four-fight winning streak that ended with a near-comeback against Tatiana Suarez in 2019 made Nunes an unexpected contender, but starting a family came first, resulting in a layoff of nearly two years to have a daughter. In the last three years, Nunes has competed just once, getting thoroughly outgrappled and tapped by Mackenzie Dern in April 2021. Another long layoff for unknown reasons leads to her return, but it does not play to her strengths. While Nunes might gain some power moving back up a division and Calvillo has taken a lot of damage lately, the latter has been far more active and employs just the skillset that can frustrate “The Strina.” Whether by submission or lopsided decision, Calvillo as a moderate favorite is a solid bet.

Antonina Shevchenko (-175)

The clock is ticking fast for the 37-year-old Shevchenko, who is a long way away from contention and would not vie for it even if she reached it, not with her younger sister on the 125-pound throne. Instead, she remains a relatively active member of the flyweight roster, as she flitters below the Top 15 rankings with inconsistent performances. Her striking is where she excels, but her pace is far from the drowning kind that some from Tiger Muay Thai can employ. It has not helped that she constantly has had to fight off takedowns, but the same can be said for her opponent, Cortney Casey, whose takedown defense is even more porous than that of the woman from Kyrgyzstan. Should this match be contested on the feet, Shevchenko sports an advantage; if it hits the mat and she finds herself on top, she would be wise to watch out for armbar setups.

Casey has gone 6-8 in the UFC, and the seven outings in which she has conceded multiple takedowns have displayed sheer gaps in coverage. Opportunistic off her back, Casey does fall victim to trying to set something up rather than get back up, with wide swaths falling off the clock when she could be more focused trying to stand. A “the floor is lava” approach may come before both women, but Shevchenko could decide to switch gears if she gets cracked. When they tangle on the feet, the far more accurate Shevchenko can pick apart the MMA Lab product and make her favored status at -175 appear to be something more akin to a lock. If you are not as comfortable in Shevchenko but still interested in using this fight to add to a parlay, the line on this fight going to decision at -185 is well within reasonable bounds.