Stand and Deliver: UFC on ESPN 23

In some ways, a win is a win and a loss is a loss. But while it is true that every fight matters, some feel more important, for any number of reasons. In some cases, the elevated stakes are easy to define. Picture the fighter on a losing streak who knows he or she is likely fighting for their job; or conversely, any matchup on Dana White's Contender Series, where two hopefuls know that the brass ring is within their reach if they can win impressively. In other cases, a fight feels especially important for reasons that are harder to quantify, but no less real. Whether it’s the symbolic heft of being a pioneer in MMA from one’s country, or the simple added spice of two fighters who really hate each other’s guts, that fight means just a little more.

This Saturday, UFC on ESPN 23 marks the Ultimate Fighting Championship’s return to its home base in Las Vegas, and the comedown from the thrilling highs and horrifying lows of UFC 261. While the overall stakes at “UFC Vegas 25” certainly feel like a step down from last week’s three-title fight extravaganza — how could they not? — rest assured that all 12 fights are serious business to the men and women involved. Here are three fighters who are probably feeling just a little extra pressure to stand and deliver at UFC on ESPN 23.

This Is Your Last Chance, Dominick Reyes

OK, it isn’t Reyes’ last chance in the sense of his continued UFC employ. Fighters not named Liz Carmouche don’t generally go from title shot to pink slip quite that quickly. However, Reyes’ headlining matchup with Jiri Prochazka this Saturday probably represents his last chance to stay in the immediate light heavyweight title discussion. In the spirit of this column, it’s worth pointing out that Reyes-Prochazka is a perfect example of a fight whose risk-reward ratio is grossly skewed in spite of the fighters being fairly matched. Prochazka, who came to the UFC last year dragging a Rizin Fighting Federation belt and a half-dozen UFC-level scalps, may well earn a title shot with a convincing win over Reyes, while the reverse is almost certainly not the case. Conversely, if Prochazka loses to Reyes, even if he gets blown out, he’s probably staring down another contender four months from now, while any kind of loss by Reyes might force the UFC to look outside the Top 10 for his next opponent. It doesn’t make it a bad matchup; it’s just a cruel world.

In a larger sense, Reyes needs to regain the buzz. For much of his UFC career, “The Devastator” has had the feel of a rising prospect, thanks to his relatively brief record and prodigious physical gifts. Now 31 and with back-to-back losses in title fights, that phase is over. It was barely over a year ago that we saw Reyes take Jon Jones to the limit in a fight many believe he won, and even those who scored the fight for Jones acknowledged that Reyes looked like the future of the division. He needs a win here unless he wants to join Alexander Gustafsson in the club of fighters whose career highlight is the night they almost beat “Bones.”

Knock This One Out of the Park, ‘Loma Lookboonmee’

Konklak Suphisara checks just about all the boxes for UFC star potential. She is a multiple time world muay Thai champion, with an aggressive style and a high motor even by the standards of lower weight nak muay. She has an enthusiastic demeanor on the mic that will probably only grow more charming as her English improves. She’s still just 25 years old.

There’s just one problem; “Loma Lookboonmee” is an atomweight competing in a promotion that doesn’t have an atomweight division. Put simply, she is tiny. And while Michelle Waterson has carved out a surprising amount of success in the UFC — by biting down on her mouthguard and leaning on her wrestling and clinch work, of all things — it’s been rough sledding for just about every other former 105-pounder trying to compete in the 115-pound division. Just ask former Suphisara opponent Jinh Yu Frey, who went from being a Top 3 atomweight to hanging onto a UFC roster spot by her fingernails in the space of about two years. Suphisara has looked all right against fellow atomweight Frey and UFC washout Aleksandra Albu, but Angela Hill was way, way too big an ask, in the literal as well as figurative sense, and Hill was the one stepping up on short notice.

We still don’t know Suphisara’s ceiling in the UFC; even if the promotion never fires up an atomweight division, she is likely to get physically stronger for the next several years, and she is still barely three years from her MMA debut. She may be a world champion striker, but as a mixed martial artist she is a prospect in need of reps. Enter Sam Hughes, Suphisara’s opponent at UFC on ESPN 23. While Hughes is a legitimate strawweight in size, she has been beaten badly by the two UFC-level fighters she has faced. Suphisara is not fighting for her job this Saturday, but this feels like a bit of a setup fight, and it would behoove her to perform accordingly.

Walk That Tightrope, Giga Chikadze

Why would the Georgian “Ninja” be on this list? Of all the people on the “UFC Vegas 25” card, he would appear to be one of the ones playing with the purest house money. He is a flashy striker who showed up in the UFC in late 2019 and won five straight fights, placing himself just behind the Khamzat Chimaevs and Kevin Hollands of the world as a breakthrough star. He is scheduled for a co-main event in just his fifth UFC fight, and in Cub Swanson, he has drawn the kind of name opponent that many prospects take years trying to chase down. As of a few days out from fight night, he is a moderate favorite over the veteran.

So why, given all those facts, does Chikadze need to stand and deliver? Two reasons. One, Swanson is an all-timer of a trap fight. His recent four-fight skid looks bad on paper but found him matched up with four Top 10 opponents in a row. While Swanson may have slowed a bit at 37, “slow” is a relative term when discussing one of the most preternatural fast-twitch fighters of his era. The other reason is simply that it’s featherweight, one of the most unforgiving divisions in the sport, a division so jammed with gifted contenders that there simply isn’t time or space for all of them. It’s a tightrope that 145-pounders have to walk. Just ask Max Holloway or Brian Ortega how many wins a fighter might need to string in a row before getting a title shot; or conversely, ask Swanson how badly one’s career track can be derailed and delayed by a single loss at the wrong time. Chikadze has loads of potential as a contender as well as a star, but at 32, a loss that sets him back a year or two would be a serious blow.