UFC 179 ‘Aldo vs. Mendes 2’ Preview

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LIGHT HEAVYWEIGHTS

Fabio Maldonado (21-7, 4-4 UFC) vs. Hans Stringer (22-5-3, 1-0 UFC)

THE MATCHUP: Two mid-tier light heavyweights meet in a likely slobberknocker. Stringer, a member of the Blackzilians team, took a controversial decision from Francimar Barroso back in March. Maldonado is one of the UFC’s designated action fighters, and an ill-advised short notice contest at heavyweight against Stipe Miocic in May left him crumpled on the canvas in less than a minute. At light heavyweight, however, Maldonado is riding a three-fight winning streak and looks to make a case for a bout with a top opponent.

Stringer is well-rounded and has no real holes in his game, but he lacks a particularly outstanding skill set and is a subpar athlete relative to the division. His kickboxing is solid, with the ability to string together decent punching combinations along with the occasional cracking kick. He has a little pop in his strikes and is fairly sound defensively. Stringer’s wrestling is probably the weakest link in his game, although it has improved -- especially up against the cage -- with the Blackzilians, as he utilizes trips from the clinch and underwhelming shot takedowns. Work from the top is Stringer’s best skill, as he maintains a heavy base and consistent output with hard combinations of ground strikes.

Maldonado’s game is all about pace and durability. The former professional boxer -- he was not a particularly good one, mind you -- does his best work inside the pocket and at infighting range, although he throws a surprisingly sharp jab to the head and body from the fringes of his preferred distance. Less a power puncher than someone who wears down his opponents, Maldonado loves to throw sequences of body punches capped off by one or two stiff hooks to the head, like a pudgy Diaz brother. At the risk of sounding harsh, wrestling and grappling are not Maldonado’s strengths, but he does a surprisingly good job of stuffing takedowns against the cage and escaping back to his feet if he gets taken down. The problem with Maldonado’s game is striking defense, as he relies on his durability to force opponents to tire out themselves. He is much more hittable than any sane fighter would want to be, and while his chin has generally held up, it will not last forever.

BETTING ODDS: Maldonado (-160), Stringer (+130)

THE PICK: The betting line seems correct. This is a winnable fight for Stringer if he minimizes the exchanges in the pocket and at infighting range and focuses on keeping Maldonado’s back against the cage or on the canvas. However, that is slightly less likely than the Brazilian losing the first round and starting to wear down Stringer in the second en route to a dominant third. Maldonado by close decision in a bloody, grinding fight is the pick.

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